The Impact of China’s Natural Forest Logging Ban on Chinese and International Timber Markets: A Counterfactual Analysis Based on Predicted Market Price

China’s implementation of the Comprehensive Commercial Logging Ban in All Natural Forests is deemed as disrupting the stability of both Chinese and international timber markets and has raised widespread concerns about deforestation leakage on a global scale. Clarifying the impact of the logging ban on the Chinese and international timber markets is essential for formulating effective policies and taking collaborative actions to improve the stability of both timber markets and promote the sustainable development of global forest resources. This study examines the causal effects of the logging ban on Chinese and international timber markets by conducting a counterfactual analysis of Chinese domestic and imported timber prices with the synthetic control method. Unlike most previous studies that revealed significant price increases in both markets as a result of the logging ban, our results show that there are no significant causal effects between the logging ban and the price changes in Chinese and international timber markets. As China made extensive efforts in plantation cultivation and harvesting and substantially improved its domestic timber supply capacity, the logging ban has only produced a limited impact on the Chinese domestic timber market and has not disrupted the international timber market through trade. Therefore, China’s logging ban policy has not protected its own forest resources at the expense of deforestation in other countries, and it has provided a practical reference for the formulation of forest protection policies and sustainable forest management.