Local conditions have greater influence than provenance on sugar maple (<i>Acer saccharum</i> Marsh.) frost hardiness at its northern range limit

In temperate and boreal ecosystems, trees undergo dormancy to avoid cold temperatures during the unfavorable season. This phase includes changes in frost hardiness, which is minimal during the growing season and reaches its maximum in winter. Quantifying frost hardiness is important to assess the frost risk and shifts of species distribution under a changing climate. We investigate the effect of local conditions and intra-specific variation on frost hardiness in sugar maple (Acer saccharum Marsh.). Seedlings belonging to seven provenances from the northern area of the species' range were planted at two sites in Quebec, Canada. LT50, i.e. the lethal temperature for 50% of the cells, was measured monthly with the relative electrolyte leakage method on branches and buds from September 2021 to July 2022. LT50 varied between -4 °C in summer (July) and -68 °C in winter (February). Autumnal acclimation rates (September to early December) and mid-winter frost hardiness (December to early March) were similar in both sites. Samples in the southern site deacclimated faster than in the northern site between March and July because of a warmer and earlier spring. No difference in frost hardiness was detected between provenances. Our results suggest that the frost hardiness trait is similar within the northern part of the sugar maple distribution, with local weather conditions having a greater influence than provenance. We demonstrate that LT50 in sugar maple can exceed -55 °C, far below the minimum temperatures occurring in winter at the northern limit of the species. In order to minimize the risk of damage from extreme frost events exceeding tree frost hardiness, a careful evaluation of site characteristics is more important than provenance selection. Other factors should also be considered within the context of changing climate, in particular, the phenology of maple and avoidance of late frost in spring.