Impact of regulatory policy instruments on plastic waste generation in India: A system dynamics approach

Monitoring plastic consumption in emerging economies such as India is crucial because in these countries more than half of the consumption gets converted into waste within a year. In 2022, the Government of India enforced the Plastic Waste Management Rules to manage plastic waste. This article aims to find the potential impact of these rules on plastic waste generation from now until 2050. The simulation is carried out in two steps. In step one, a material flow analysis is conducted that maps plastic flow from production to its end-of-life. Through this it is estimated that at an optimistic level, off the 20 million metric tonnes (Mt) of plastic consumed, around 10 Mt is added to stock, 4.5 Mt is recycled, 2.5 Mt is reutilized and the balance 3 Mt is mismanaged. In step two, through system dynamics model, the impact of policy instruments is estimated on each stage of the flow of plastic assuming a phased implementation. Through this model, it is found that annually mismanaged plastic waste increases 11 to 28 Mt in 2050 in a business-as-usual scenario; however, implementing all the policies in a phased manner would stabilize waste generation from 2040 onwards.