Forecasting the prevalence of diabetes mellitus in Ukraine using Markov chains

Diabetes mellitus stands out as one of the non-communicable diseases posing the greatest challenge to healthcare. Projecting the number of individuals affected by diabetes, including those requiring hospitalization, can aid in shaping future healthcare strategies, notably anticipating the necessary quantity of medications and hospital beds for diabetic patients.A predictive model was constructed utilizing the Monte Carlo Markov Chain method, drawing upon statistical data from the Ministry of Health of Ukraine spanning 1993-2022. The model encompassed the following states: healthy, diseased, hospitalized, deceased. Sub-states for children and adults were considered separately. The baseline year was set as 2006, with each Markov chain cycle representing one year. Projections extended to 2035. At the onset of each cycle, the average (over 2006-2017) number of newborns in Ukraine per year augmented the number of healthy children. Death (of a diabetic patient or non-diabetic individual) was regarded as an absorbing state in the Markov chain.According to the constructed predictive model, by 2035, the number of adult diabetic patients is anticipated to rise to 1.7 million, with approximately 200 thousand necessitating hospitalization within the year. The quantity of diabetic children is projected to remain relatively stable.