Does farmland transfer exacerbate non-grain production? Evidence from county-level panel data in Chongqing, China

This study conducted a theoretical analysis of the pathways and mechanisms through which farmland transfer influences non-grain production, utilizing county-level panel data from Chongqing, China, spanning from 2018 to 2022. Exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA) and random-effects models were employed to reveal the characteristics and mechanisms of the non-grain production of farmland transfer (NGPFT). The findings indicated: (1) NGPFT in Chongqing showed significant spatial clustering, with the high values in the Metropolitan Developed Economic Area and the low values in the Three Gorges Reservoir Urban Agglomeration. (2) Farmland transfer didn’t directly cause non-grain production, but adjustments in production factors and changes in recipients indirectly affected it. (3) Higher farmland-transfer rents exacerbated the trend towards non-grain production. (4) There was significant heterogeneity in the impact of different recipients of farmland transfer on non-grain production. Specifically, ordinary farmers had a significant inhibiting effect on non-grain production, while agricultural enterprises and other entities had a significant positive effect. Family farms and farmers’ cooperatives had no significant impact. Suggestions include harnessing farmland transfer’s positive effects on resource allocation, being vigilant against high land rents’ crowding-out effect on grain production, and preventing large-scale non-grain production by agricultural enterprises and other entities, while encouraging ordinary farmers, family farms, and cooperatives to engage in grain production.