“Bounded States”: How (Extreme) Risk Constrains the Aspiration for Status

We introduce the concept of “bounded states” to analyse how aspiration and risk (exposure and vulnerability to threats) shape the politics of status-seeking among states. We do so by examining how vulnerability to domestic and geopolitical threats constrain the aspiration of states for higher status in the international system, using the African Union Agenda 2063 strategic initiative as an illustrative case study. We draw on a review of key policy documents and secondary data analysis to highlight the tension between the collective aspiration for continental transformation and the catastrophic risks posed by climate change and geo-economic competition. We argue that African states, acting as “bounded states,” navigate these risks through a constrained version of Pan-Africanism—which we term as bounded Pan-Africanism—balancing their ambitions with the realities of high vulnerability to internal and external threats. In conclusion, this study offers new insights into the complex dynamics of status-seeking for states in a volatile global landscape.