Network Modelling of Assessing the Impact of Threats to the Economic Security of Logistics Operators

Introduction. The increasing crisis phenomena affecting modern business structures and risks for the economic security of logistics organisations determine the relevance of their research. It is crucial to determine changes in the conceptual and categorical structure of enterprises’ economic security and threats to the economic security of logistics entities in an unstable financial situation. Activity-on-node (AoN) modelling was used as an analytical tool for developing project measures, allowing for effective planning of implementing activities to improve logistics organisations’ economic security. Aim and tasks. This study aims to extend the presentation of the methodology related to the triple model of logistics actors (purpose-resources-time), which includes five stages of threat indicators in the context of ranking. Results. Key factors influencing the economic security of a logistics entity have been identified, enabling the accumulation of resources in critical operational areas. This is achieved by prioritising economic security measures based on a quantitative (scoring) assessment of threat levels and the probability of their occurrence. According to experts, potential threats to the economic security of the Fozzy Group LLC (Ukraine) were identified to predict the corresponding threats based on their possible characteristics. The implemented measures to prevent potential threats to logistics activities showed an increase in the average comparable indicators by 21% (2022). The following trends in the probability of threat occurrence to the economic security of a logistics entity are identified: an increase in the percentage values of the indicators, specifically «very high» (6.0%), «high» (2.7%), «medium» (3.0%), «low» (2.0%), and «very low» (1.0%). The fingdings indicate the effectiveness of implementing measures to improve security, particularly regarding economic effects. The proposed approach for assessing threats to economic security in logistics activities prioritises and implements the most significant measures to strengthen security through a quantitative (scoring) assessment and using a network model (AoN) with plane representation. Conclusions. It is emphasised that the main aspects of this article will allow domestic business structures to apply this network modelling approach, predict threats to economic security, and develop practical strategies for strengthening the security component in the context of modern challenges. These findings provide a promising fundamental basis for enhancing the economic security of logistics entities in the context of network modelling.