Modeling herd immunity: Insights from human behavior during COVID-19

We present a comprehensive SEIRDI[Formula: see text] model incorporating six compartments to examine the progression of COVID-19 and evaluate control strategies. Our findings reveal that implementing partial restrictions with varying levels of stringency delays the infection peak by approximately 160 days, alleviating pressure on healthcare systems. Under a herd immunity approach with an 85% immunity threshold, at least 425 days (14 months) are required for a gradual return to normalcy. Accelerated vaccination significantly shortens this timeline, emphasizing the critical role of immunization in societal reopening. Additionally, we highlight the importance of rigorously assessing post-vaccine side effects to uphold ethical and scientific standards. These insights provide actionable guidance for policymakers to balance public health interventions with economic recovery.

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Publication Details

Journal
Advances in Complex Systems
Published
2024-12-27
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1142/s1793962325500229
Primary Topic
COVID-19 epidemiological studies
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
0.00
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article

Modeling herd immunity: Insights from human behavior during COVID-19

D. Soubane, A. Nafidi, H. Soubane
Advances in Complex Systems
COVID-19 epidemiological studies
article

Modeling herd immunity: Insights from human behavior during COVID-19

D. Soubane, A. Nafidi, H. Soubane
article en

Abstract

We present a comprehensive SEIRDI[Formula: see text] model incorporating six compartments to examine the progression of COVID-19 and evaluate control strategies. Our findings reveal that implementing partial restrictions with varying levels of stringency delays the infection peak by approximately 160 days, alleviating pressure on healthcare systems. Under a herd immunity approach with an 85% immunity threshold, at least 425 days (14 months) are required for a gradual return to normalcy. Accelerated vaccination significantly shortens this timeline, emphasizing the critical role of immunization in societal reopening. Additionally, we highlight the importance of rigorously assessing post-vaccine side effects to uphold ethical and scientific standards. These insights provide actionable guidance for policymakers to balance public health interventions with economic recovery.

Advances in Complex SystemsVol. 16(01)
Cadi Ayyad University (MA), Institut National de la Recherche Scientifique (CA), Université Ibn Zohr (MA), Ministère de la Santé (MA)
Gender equality
Openalex Percentile: Top 74%
COVID-19 epidemiological studies
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Modeling herd immunity: Insights from human behavior during COVID-19 — D. Soubane, A. Nafidi, et al. · Advances in Complex Systems (2024) | TGRS Research Map | TGRS