Modeling herd immunity: Insights from human behavior during COVID-19
We present a comprehensive SEIRDI[Formula: see text] model incorporating six compartments to examine the progression of COVID-19 and evaluate control strategies. Our findings reveal that implementing partial restrictions with varying levels of stringency delays the infection peak by approximately 160 days, alleviating pressure on healthcare systems. Under a herd immunity approach with an 85% immunity threshold, at least 425 days (14 months) are required for a gradual return to normalcy. Accelerated vaccination significantly shortens this timeline, emphasizing the critical role of immunization in societal reopening. Additionally, we highlight the importance of rigorously assessing post-vaccine side effects to uphold ethical and scientific standards. These insights provide actionable guidance for policymakers to balance public health interventions with economic recovery.
Authors
- D. Soubane (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8873-3799)
- A. Nafidi (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6158-8416)
- H. Soubane
Institutions
- Cadi Ayyad University (MA)
- Institut National de la Recherche Scientifique (CA)
- Université Ibn Zohr (MA)
- Ministère de la Santé (MA)
Publication Details
- Journal
- Advances in Complex Systems
- Published
- 2024-12-27
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.1142/s1793962325500229
- Primary Topic
- COVID-19 epidemiological studies
- Type
- article
- Field-Weighted Citation Impact
- 0.00