Alliances, state preferences, and trade networks: The impact of United States sanctions on dual-use trade

Export controls on dual-use commodities are crucial to US foreign policy goals. Research finds that US sanctions motivate third-party compliance with export controls. However, the sanctions-busting literature suggests that allies are more likely than non-allies to sabotage US sanctioning efforts. We argue that US allies export more controlled dual-use goods (CDU) when the importer is not facing US sanctions. However, US allies will not export more CDU than non-allies to US-sanctioned states. We also argue that US sanctions condition the impact of economic and political determinants of CDU trade. We find support in models spanning 1997–2015.