Minimum Wage and Effects on Unemployment: The Case of Spain and Its Implications on Simpson’s Paradox and Geographical Mobility

This research explains the effects of the Government’s regular increases in the minimum wages on unemployment in Spain. Using a longitudinal analysis covering the years 2010 to 2023 the research collects data split by gender, age group, and Autonomous Community (AC). The data has been adjusted calculating the minimum wage Mean and Mode values. A negative or inverse correlation between minimum wage variables and unemployment is observed presenting Pearson values between -0.4 and -0.6 in most groups. Also, the research applies a one-way ANOVA test. It shows findings of unemployment reduction, specifically in the categories of young males, even though, the minimum wage in Spain has been regularly increased during the last years, in line with other authors. The aggregated and disaggregated data obtained vary and move in opposite directions confirming in a certain way that the principle of the Simpson’s Paradox could take place here. The research also confirms a relevant Estimated Size Effect (ETA) when comparing Autonomous Communities and their influence on unemployment for 55+ years old people.