Analysis on Dynamic Causal Relationship between Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Fisheries Revenue based on Fishing Efforts in Offshore Fisheries

This study examines the dynamic causal relationships among fisheries revenue (FR), greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and vessel horsepower (HP) in the South Korean offshore fisheries sector. Utilizing panel vector autoregression (PVAR) analysis on data collected from 16 different fishing gears from 2003 to 2020, this research confirms the absence of panel unit roots and employs a PVAR(1) model, structuring the variables in the sequence of D.lnHP, D.lnGHG, and D.lnFR. The impulse response analysis results from the PVAR(1) model revealed that a 1% increase in HP tends to reduce the growth rate of GHG emissions over four years. To sustain these results, adopting energy-efficient and advanced technology vessels, such as electric-hybrid or LPG-powered, is crucial. Conversely, a 1% increase in GHG emissions slightly raises the growth rate of FR over three years. Improving these analysis results requires augmenting FR by transitioning to a total allowable catch-based policy and restoring fisheries resources.