Dynamic Causal Analysis of Coastal Passenger Transport Performance and Operations Frequency : Focusing on Policy Directions for Supporting Coastal Passenger Ships

This study aims to establish policy directions for supporting coastal passenger ships to revitalize tourism in island regions, an area that has recently garnered significant attention. Using nationwide coastal passenger route data from 2018 to 2023, the study seeks to identify the dynamic causal relationship between the supply and demand of coastal passenger ships. To achieve this, the number of operations was employed as a proxy variable for supply, and transport performance was used as a proxy for demand. The analysis of the Granger causality, based on a panel vector error correction model, revealed that the supply of coastal passenger ships Granger-causes demand, but demand does not Granger-cause supply. In other words, the domestic coastal passenger shipping industry operates in a manner where supply generates demand. Although the specific characteristics and conditions of each route must be comprehensively considered, it is deemed necessary to prioritize support policies for the stable supply of coastal passenger ships to promote tourism in island regions.