Analyses of sugar cane production trend, growth rate, instability index and decomposition in Nigeria

The research examined the trends, growth rates, and instability indices related to the output, harvested area, and yield of sugarcane in Nigeria. It also analyzed the decomposition of sugarcane production in Nigeria. Utilizing secondary data sourced from the Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) covering the period from 1961 to 2022, the study revealed inconsistent patterns in trend of output, harvested area, and yield of sugarcane across the specified timeframe. The compound growth rates identified were 1.11% for output, 1.03% for harvested area, and 0.08% for yield. For the period 1961 to 2022, the Cuddy-Della Valle instability index (CDI) and the Coppock Instability Index (COI) were calculated at 21.23 and 58.79 for output, 35.70 and 72.34 for harvested area, and 20.55 and 50.99 for yield, respectively. These instability indices were relatively moderate, indicating significant activity within the sugarcane sector in Nigeria. A decomposition analysis of the total effect of sugarcane output showed that the land area effect accounted for 144.55%, the yield effect for -3.60%, and the interaction effect for -40.95% of the total variability in output. The findings suggest that the land area effect is the predominant factor driving the growth of sugarcane production in Nigeria. Consequently, it is recommended that various programs be implemented within the sub-sector to stimulate increased activity and potentially enhance both output and yield.