Machine Learning Model Reveals Land Use and Climate’s Role in Caatinga Wildfires: Present and Future Scenarios

Wildfires significantly impact ecosystems, economies, and biodiversity, particularly in fire-prone regions like the Caatinga biome in Northeastern Brazil. This study integrates machine learning with climate and land use data to model current and future fire dynamics in the Caatinga. Using MaxEnt, fire probability maps were generated based on historical fire scars from Landsat imagery and environmental predictors, including bioclimatic variables and human influences. Future projections under SSP1-2.6 (low-emission) and SSP5-8.5 (high-emission) scenarios were also analyzed. The baseline model achieved an AUC of 0.825, indicating a strong predictive performance. Key drivers of fire risk included the mean temperature of the driest quarter (with an importance of 14.1%) and isothermality (12.5%). Temperature-related factors were more influential than precipitation, which played a secondary role in shaping fire dynamics. Anthropogenic factors, such as proximity to farming and urban areas, also contributed to fire susceptibility. Under the optimistic scenario, low-fire-probability areas expanded to 29.129 Mha, suggesting a reduced fire risk with climate mitigation. However, high-risk zones persisted in the Western Caatinga. The pessimistic scenario projected an alarming expansion of very-high-risk areas to 12.448 Mha, emphasizing the vulnerability of the region under severe climate conditions. These findings underline the importance of temperature dynamics and human activities in shaping fire regimes. Future research should incorporate additional variables, such as vegetation recovery and socio-economic factors, to refine predictions. This study provides critical insights for targeted fire management and land use planning, promoting the sustainable conservation of the Caatinga under changing climatic conditions.