A Method for Predicting the Timing of Mine Earthquakes Based on Deformation Localization States

As a prevalent geological hazard in underground engineering, the accurate prediction of mine earthquakes is crucial for ensuring operational safety and enhancing mining efficiency. The deformation localization method effectively predicts the instability of disaster rocks, yet the timing of mine earthquakes remains understudied. This study established a correlation between rock deformation localization and seismic activity within mines through theoretical derivations. A predictive model algorithm for forecasting mine earthquake timing was developed based on Saito’s theory, integrating optics, acoustics, and mathematical modeling theories. The “quiet period” was identified as a significant precursor; thus, the model used the initiation of deformation localization to accurately predict rock failure. Using the model, a coal mine in Inner Mongolia was selected as a case study to predict a historical mining earthquake. The results indicated that the following: (1) Deformation localization and the “quiet period” of microseismic (MS) and acoustic emission (AE) activities were identified as two key pre-cursory indicators. The model utilized the initiation time of deformation localization and the inflection point of the “quiet period” in MS and AE activity as primary parameters. (2) For predicting rock failure times, the earliest prediction time deviates from the actual failure time by 143 s. The accuracy rate of predicted time points falling within a 90% confidence interval of the actual failure times is 100%. The model achieved 60% in forecasting the occurrence times of mine earthquakes. (3) The model’s prediction accuracy improved as the starting time parameter more closely approximated the actual initiation time of deformation localization, with the accuracy increasing from 0% to 100%.