Forecasting electricity consumption using the Principal Component Analysis method

Relevance. The need for accurate forecasting of electricity consumption to improve efficiency and reduce costs at industrial enterprises, which leads to increased competitiveness of goods manufactured by the enterprise. Traditional forecasting methods often do not take into account complex interactions between various factors affecting energy consumption and do not provide the necessary forecast accuracy. The principal component analysis method offers a promising prospect – reducing the volume of processed data (dimensionality) without significant loss of information, which simplifies forecast models while maintaining their accuracy. Aim. To develop an accurate and efficient model for forecasting electricity consumption at industrial enterprises using the principal component analysis method. This model is aimed at eliminating the limitations of traditional forecasting approaches by reducing data dimensionality and increasing the accuracy of predictions, which ultimately improves the efficiency of electricity consumption and reduces financial costs, including those due to forecasting errors. Methods. The principal component analysis method, which allows us to reduce the volume of processed data (dimensionality) by transforming a large set of correlated variables into a smaller set of uncorrelated principal components. The study included the following stages: data import and factor analysis, correlation matrix construction, analysis of selected and accumulated variances for each factor, factor loading matrix construction, dimension reduction, development of a mathematical model using linear regression, and forecast installation and validation. Results. The application of the principal component analysis method allowed us to create a model for forecasting electricity consumption. Its application showed that the first principal component explains 69.65% of the total variance, the second component – ​​17.28%, i. e. together they explain almost 87% of the variance. The developed model provides good agreement between the actual and forecast values ​​of electricity consumption in several time intervals with an average error level within the range of +3 to –5%. This indicates the suitability of the model for forecasting electricity consumption, although some discrepancies indicate the need for its further improvement.