Prediction of Influencing Factors on Estimated Ultimate Recovery of Deep Coalbed Methane: A Case Study of the Daning–Jixian Block

China has vast amounts of deep coalbed methane resources but is still in the early stage of deep coalbed methane development; thus, it lacks mature gas exploitation and development theories and technologies, particularly effective methods for evaluating final recoverable reserves. This paper intends to develop a method that can rapidly and accurately predict deep coalbed methane EUR before well spacing to guide the formulation of rational exploitation schemes and full exploitation of geological resources, thus lowering costs and enhancing efficiency. Taking deep coalbed methane in the Daning–Jixian block of the Ordos Basin as the research object, this paper first uses the production decline method to evaluate the EUR of brought-in wells and analyzes the influence of geological conditions and engineering parameters on the EUR. Second, the ADASYN method is used to process the unevenly distributed samples to solve the small number and poor representativeness of the machine learning model samples. After this, the BP neural network, support vector machine, and Gaussian process regression are used to build EUR evaluation models, and the models are compared and the best is selected. Lastly, the selected EUR evaluation model is applied to analyze the influence weights of geological conditions and engineering parameters on EUR. According to the research results, the MAPEs of the BP neural network, support vector machine, and Gaussian process regression models reach 7.03%, 7.23%, and 1.28%, respectively, after ADASYNA oversampling. However, the Gaussian process regression model may bear the risk of overfitting. The model comparison results show that the support vector machine model is superior to the BP neural network model and the Gaussian process regression model. Therefore, the support vector machine is favorably selected to predict EUR in this paper. Feature importance analysis results indicate that engineering parameters (including clusters, horizontal length, fracturing liquid, and proppant) are the major factors influencing the EUR prediction results. This paper establishes a model for predicting the EUR of deep coalbed methane, which provides a reference for the future formulation of well spacing schemes in the surveyed region.

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Publication Details

Journal
Processes
Published
2024-12-26
DOI
https://doi.org/10.3390/pr13010031
Citations
4
Primary Topic
Coal Properties and Utilization
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
1.34

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article

Prediction of Influencing Factors on Estimated Ultimate Recovery of Deep Coalbed Methane: A Case Study of the Daning–Jixian Block

Muxi Wu, Xiaosong Shi, Shuangfang Lu, Zhigen Zhao et al.
4 citations
Processes
Coal Properties and Utilization
1.34
article

Prediction of Influencing Factors on Estimated Ultimate Recovery of Deep Coalbed Methane: A Case Study of the Daning–Jixian Block

Muxi Wu, Xiaosong Shi, Shuangfang Lu, Zhigen Zhao, Yanqing Feng, Ying Liu, Wei Sun, Guohui Chen, Yuan Wang, Feng Wang
article en
4 citations

Abstract

China has vast amounts of deep coalbed methane resources but is still in the early stage of deep coalbed methane development; thus, it lacks mature gas exploitation and development theories and technologies, particularly effective methods for evaluating final recoverable reserves. This paper intends to develop a method that can rapidly and accurately predict deep coalbed methane EUR before well spacing to guide the formulation of rational exploitation schemes and full exploitation of geological resources, thus lowering costs and enhancing efficiency. Taking deep coalbed methane in the Daning–Jixian block of the Ordos Basin as the research object, this paper first uses the production decline method to evaluate the EUR of brought-in wells and analyzes the influence of geological conditions and engineering parameters on the EUR. Second, the ADASYN method is used to process the unevenly distributed samples to solve the small number and poor representativeness of the machine learning model samples. After this, the BP neural network, support vector machine, and Gaussian process regression are used to build EUR evaluation models, and the models are compared and the best is selected. Lastly, the selected EUR evaluation model is applied to analyze the influence weights of geological conditions and engineering parameters on EUR. According to the research results, the MAPEs of the BP neural network, support vector machine, and Gaussian process regression models reach 7.03%, 7.23%, and 1.28%, respectively, after ADASYNA oversampling. However, the Gaussian process regression model may bear the risk of overfitting. The model comparison results show that the support vector machine model is superior to the BP neural network model and the Gaussian process regression model. Therefore, the support vector machine is favorably selected to predict EUR in this paper. Feature importance analysis results indicate that engineering parameters (including clusters, horizontal length, fracturing liquid, and proppant) are the major factors influencing the EUR prediction results. This paper establishes a model for predicting the EUR of deep coalbed methane, which provides a reference for the future formulation of well spacing schemes in the surveyed region.

ProcessesVol. 13(1)
Northeast Petroleum University (CN)
National Natural Science Foundation of China
Openalex Percentile: Top 19%
Coal Properties and Utilization
1.34
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