The Response of Small Watershed Storm Floods to Climate Change

This study utilizes historical monitoring data from the Xu Fan small watershed spanning 1962 to 2021 and employs the K-means clustering algorithm to classify extreme rainfall events into three distinct categories: short-duration high-intensity rainfall, sustained moderate-intensity rainfall, and long-duration heavy rainfall. Through the application of the Random Forest model, key factors influencing flood characteristics are identified, including total rainfall, maximum rainfall intensity, the timing of maximum intensity, and rainfall duration. The comparative analysis of data before and after 1990 highlights that climate change has led to increased maximum rainfall intensity, reduced rainfall duration, and shifts in the temporal distribution of rainfall, thereby exerting a significant influence on the flood generation process.