The influence of the dynamic context of the pandemic on the predictive performance of mortality predictions over time in older patients hospitalized for COVID-19
Compared to the moderate model performance in the first wave, we observed a slight decrease in terms of discrimination and calibration in the second and third wave with a much larger decrease in the fourth wave. This highlights the importance of ongoing data collection, monitoring of model performance, and model updates during a pandemic.
Authors
- Jacobijn Gussekloo (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7186-8278)
- Raymond Noordam (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7801-809X)
- Brent Appelman (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4560-8410)
- Veerle M G T H van der Klei (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2782-1517)
- Julia Minnema (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0407-822X)
- Rosalinde A. L. Smits (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3444-2988)
- Annemieke Smorenberg
- Harmke A. Polinder‐Bos (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7458-725X)
- Anum Zahra (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1553-8092)
- Geeske M. E. E. Peeters (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4460-7026)
- Maarten van Smeden (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5529-1541)
- Bas F M van Raaij (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1372-0002)
- Anne de Hond (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3473-3398)
- Karel G.M. Moons (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2118-004X)
- Stella Trompet (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5006-0528)
- Simon P. Mooijaart (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3106-3568)
- Ewout W. Steyerberg (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7787-0122)
Institutions
- Radboud University Nijmegen (NL)
- Utrecht University (NL)
- Leiden University Medical Center (NL)
- Erasmus MC (NL)
- Amsterdam UMC Location University of Amsterdam (NL)
- Radboud University Medical Center (NL)
- University Medical Center Utrecht (NL)
- Amsterdam Neuroscience (NL)
- Amsterdam University Medical Centers (NL)
- University of Amsterdam (NL)
- Amsterdam UMC Location Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam (NL)
Publication Details
- Journal
- Journal of Clinical Epidemiology
- Published
- 2024-12-26
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclinepi.2024.111652
- Citations
- 2
- Primary Topic
- COVID-19 and healthcare impacts
- Type
- article
- Field-Weighted Citation Impact
- 0.57
Funders
- ZonMw