How does globally accumulated tropical cyclone energy vary in response to a changing climate?

How tropical cyclone (TC) activity varies in response to a changing climate is widely debated. The accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) is one of the indicators of TC activity and has attracted considerable attention because of its close relationship with the damages caused by TCs. Previous studies have focused on detecting long-term trends in global ACE; however, the results are inconclusive. Here, it is revealed that the global ACE demonstrates a striking interdecadal variation over the past four decades, with a historical peak occurring in the 1990s. A close relationship between the interdecadal variability of the global ACE and the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) is also identified, with a Pearson correlation coefficient of 0.75 (P < 0.01). When the IPO is in its positive phase, more TCs with a longer lifetime occur owing to greater coverage of weak vertical wind shear (VWS) conditions over the tropics. The coverage of weak VWS conditions can be verified by either prescribing the observed sea surface temperature in atmospheric models or the observed IPO in coupled models, indicating the significant role of the IPO. Our findings show that the IPO affects the interdecadal variability of global TC activity through moderating atmospheric circulations.

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Publication Details

Journal
Science Bulletin
Published
2024-12-26
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scib.2024.12.036
Citations
8
Primary Topic
Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
3.01

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article

How does globally accumulated tropical cyclone energy vary in response to a changing climate?

Wenchao Chu, Xiping Yu, Kaiyue Shan, Fengfei Song et al.
8 citations
Science Bulletin
Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research
3.01
article

How does globally accumulated tropical cyclone energy vary in response to a changing climate?

Wenchao Chu, Xiping Yu, Kaiyue Shan, Fengfei Song, Chengfei He, Lixin Wu, Yanluan Lin, Pao‐Shin Chu
article en
8 citations

Abstract

How tropical cyclone (TC) activity varies in response to a changing climate is widely debated. The accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) is one of the indicators of TC activity and has attracted considerable attention because of its close relationship with the damages caused by TCs. Previous studies have focused on detecting long-term trends in global ACE; however, the results are inconclusive. Here, it is revealed that the global ACE demonstrates a striking interdecadal variation over the past four decades, with a historical peak occurring in the 1990s. A close relationship between the interdecadal variability of the global ACE and the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) is also identified, with a Pearson correlation coefficient of 0.75 (P < 0.01). When the IPO is in its positive phase, more TCs with a longer lifetime occur owing to greater coverage of weak vertical wind shear (VWS) conditions over the tropics. The coverage of weak VWS conditions can be verified by either prescribing the observed sea surface temperature in atmospheric models or the observed IPO in coupled models, indicating the significant role of the IPO. Our findings show that the IPO affects the interdecadal variability of global TC activity through moderating atmospheric circulations.

Science BulletinVol. 70(6)
University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa (US), Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory (US), Southern University of Science and Technology (CN), Ministry of Education (ME), Ocean University of China (CN), Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (US), Tsinghua University (CN)
China Association for Science and Technology, National Natural Science Foundation of China
Climate action
Openalex Percentile: Top 8%
Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research
3.01
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