Quantitative risk assessment of African Swine Fever (ASF) spread from North-Eastern states to other states of India through live pigs, pork or pork product transportation

African Swine Fever (ASF) causes severe economic loss to the pig industry and is mostly transmitted by infected pigs, pig carcasses, pork products and fomites. A preliminary work on probabilistic quantitative risk assessment model for the risk of ASF spread from North-Eastern (NE) states to other states of India during high-risk period of ASF through live pigs, pork or pork product transportation was carried out. For risk assessment, the data was collected using a questionnaire, expert opinion, surveillance data and internet searches. The mean monthly probability of ASFV introduction from NE states to other states of India during high-risk period of ASF through live pig transportation was estimated as 1.13x 10 −8 (0.2–59.2 ×10 −7 , 95 % CI) and median of 5.19x10 −9 . The risk estimation for pork or pork products transportation was monthly mean of 3.08 x 10 −6 (0–15.2 ×10 −5 , 95 % CI) and median of 1.61x10 −6 . Given this, the mean annual probability of ASFV introduction via live pig transportation and pork or pork products can be estimated as 1.36 × 10 −7 and 3.69 x 10 −5 respectively. The estimated combined (live pig and pork products) mean monthly and annual probability of ASF spread to other Indian states either by live pig or pork and pork products was 3.09 × 10 −6 and 3.71x10 −5 respectively. Further, the sensitivity analysis identified the influential parameters. The study estimated that the probability of ASF transmission from NE states to other parts of India during high-risk period of ASF by live pigs and pork products is quite low, which may be because of ban on pig and pig products transportation during ASF high-risk period. Generally, the demand for pigs and pork in NE states is high and that lead to lesser export of pigs and pork or pork products from NE states to other parts of the country. Although a more extensive study of different routes of ASF transmission needs to be conducted, the outcome of the present study can be utilized to form an outline for future implementation of prevention and control measures.