Fractional modeling of dengue fever with optimal control strategies in Dire Dawa, Ethiopia

Dengue fever is a significant public health concern worldwide, contributing to the deaths of many people each year. In this paper, we analyze a fractional-order model of dengue virus infection with optimal control strategies, using real data from Dire Dawa city. Some parameter values are estimated by fitting the data to the model, and the threshold quantity is computed. The stability of the disease-free and endemic equilibrium points is analyzed. Sensitivity analysis, based on the normalized forward sensitivity index, is conducted to identify the most significant parameters influencing disease incidence. Based on the sensitivity analysis results, a fractional optimal control problem is formulated. Using Pontryagin’s Minimum Principle, we derive the necessary conditions for the existence of optimal controls. Finally, numerical simulations are performed to verify the analytical results. The findings suggest that an economically feasible combination of the four control measures along with lower memory index can effectively reduce the spread of the dengue virus in Dire Dawa city in just a few weeks.