Diameter distribution of Carapa guianensis Aubl. in a managed forest in the Amazon guarantees its continuous production and conservation in the ecosystem

The growth of a population of Carapa guianensis Aubl. was evaluated, based on predictions made in Markov chain on the diametric distribution of the number of trees, after reduced impact logging and application of silvicultural treatments in an Amazonian forest. Monitoring was carried out in 60 permanent plots measuring 50 m x 50 m, in which all trees with DBH ≥ 5 cm were measured. Four treatments and a control area were established (T0 - unlogged area - control; T1 - logged area; T2 - logged area + thinning up to 20.8% of basal area; T3 - logged area + thinning up to 27.6% of basal area basal; T4 - logged area + thinning up to 53.2% of basal area). A Markov transition matrix was constructed to make predictions for the years 1995 and 2011, using the periods 1983-1989 and 1995-2003 as a basis. The efficiency of the method was analyzed using the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, at a significance level of 5%. The predicted values for the years 1995 and 2011 were statistically similar. The Markov chain was accurate for the first prediction (1995), but it was different for the second (2011). The models generated allow us to estimate values close to those observed in the field. Carapa guianensis can be included in management projects for sustainable timber production, considering that even after logging and thinning operations its population remains abundant and well distributed across diameter classes.