ASSESSMENT OF THE SHOCK RESISTANCE OF THE ECONOMY OF AGRICULTURAL REGIONS TO EXTERNAL ECONOMIC TURBULENCE

The increasing sanctions attacks, the transformation of foreign economic supply chains, and restrictions on access to global financial markets have a significant impact on the parameters of sustainable development of the national economy and its regions. At the same time, these processes, which belong to the category of macroeconomic external shocks, manifest themselves very heterogeneously in the context of the regional economic systems of the Russian Federation, which have different potential for resistance and adaptation to new conditions. Of particular interest is the potential for shock resistance (resilience) of regions with agricultural specialization, which form the potential for food security of the country and determine the key frontiers of the quality of life of the population. The novelty of the study is the proposed three-dimensional model, which assumes the need to study the processes under study through the prism of the manifestation of three key components (indicators). The first one characterizes the readiness of the research object for systemic transformations (Res_eff), and the two following ones (export dependence and import dependence) (Res_uyazv), combined into a single, aggregated indicator, form the potential for assessing the vulnerability of regions in the context of the transformation of foreign economic relations. The ratio of these indicators to each other determines the value of the integral indicator of the shock resistance of the region. Based on the developed methodological tools, as well as relying on descriptive data analysis methods to identify regions of Volga Federal District with an increased level of agro-industrial specialization, two regional groups with similar characteristics of aggregated resistance were identified. The first group, with a moderate level of shock resistance, included the Republic of Bashkortostan and the Republic of Tatarstan. These entities are characterized by an increased risk of sustainable development in the context of sanctions attacks. The second group with a high level of resistance (Res ≥2) included Saratov, Penza and Orenburg regions, forming the framework of agricultural subjects of Volga Federal District with the highest level of shock resistance.