Justification of strategic decisions on development of the transport and logistics system’ elements of the northern region

Subject. The formation of a full-fledged transport and logistics system based on large–scale infrastructure projects is the basis of the modern concept of the development of the Russian North and the Arctic. However, in the current geopolitical conditions and the influence of a number of environmental, social, economic and other factors, decision makers often face problems in justifying and choosing a particular project. Objectives. The study aims to offer a procedure for substantiating the choice of strategic alternatives for development of elements of the transport and logistics system, based on expert assessments, to management decision makers at regional and municipal levels. Methods. The study rests on the systems approach, methods of economic analysis, expert analytical technologies, and matrix positioning of management decisions. Results. Using the case of the Arkhangelsk transport hub, we considered three projects related to its development. A number of expert interviews enabled to identify the most significant factors and their groups that influence the condition and development of the territory during each project implementation. We determined weights of groups of factors and their intragroup weights, the degree of consistency of expert judgments, the leading factors in the groups, and provided estimates of relevant correlations. Conclusions. We unveiled significant differentiation of the considered projects in terms of totality and strength of influence of groups of factors affecting the territory development. The findings can be used as information basis for justifying and choosing the priorities of their implementation.