Arctic Sea Ice Prediction Based on Multi‐Scale Graph Modeling With Conservation Laws

Abstract Arctic sea ice prediction is critical for exploring climate change, resource extraction, and shipping route planning. This paper introduces a novel neural network model, Ice Graph Attention neTwork (IceGAT), that is trained to predict sea ice concentration (SIC) from a number of atmospheric, oceanic, and land surface measurements. It is based on two design principles: (a) the complex spatial interactions in weather dynamics are captured via a series of graphs corresponding to different spatial resolutions and (b) the incorporation of the physical conservation laws for moisture and potential vorticity. We devise two main variants with 1 hr and 24 hr temporal resolution and determine the optimal input horizon to be 5 days. IceGAT features leading accuracy (96.7%; +2.4% over the current state‐of‐the‐art) and low inference time (1/4 s, on a single GPU). An online implementation (based on data from ERA5) alongside supplementary videos and our shared code are accessible at: https://lannwei.github.io/IceGAT/ .