ALGORITHM FOR CALCULATING RELIABILITY OF ON-SITE POWER SUPPLY SCHEMES USING CONNECTION COEFFICIENTS

The article deals with the method of simplifying the forecasting of reliability parameters and assessing the technical condition of the most critical nodes of the power supply system by means of connection coefficients. The aim of the study is to develop a methodology to determine the probability of failure-free operation of the power supply scheme using connection coefficients. Materials and methods. The scheme of 10/0,4 kV power supply within the workshop is presented. Probabilistic methods of reliability determination and mathematical statistics were used. Research results. The probability of failure-free operation in time using the exponential distribution law has been calculated. Graphs of dependences of probability of system uptime on the number of load connections, as well as graphs of changes in the values of connection coefficients in time are presented. The formulas for the load connection factors depending on the number of connections are derived. The received analytical expressions allow to model values at possible additional load connections. The obtained dependences allow to determine the probability of failure-free operation time of low-voltage electrical equipment, as well as the schemes of the in-house power supply. Conclusions. The proposed methodology simplifies the forecasting of reliability parameters of the scheme of the internal shop power supply and the assessment of the technical condition of the most important and critical nodes. The modeled values of the load connection coefficients can be used in technical and economic calculations, namely for further increase of the number of outgoing lines from the switchboard and distribution point or increase of the load on the line taking into account the permissible probability of failure-free operation of the scheme. The results of the study are recommended to evaluate technical performance and determination of the main reliability parameters of the operating systems of in-plant power supply.