Soldiers and Autocratization. Varieties of Military Roles in Post-Cold War Asia

Abstract This paper analyzes the military’s behavior in seventeen episodes of autocratization in Asia-Pacific since 1991. It presents a conceptualization of military roles in situations of autocratization. The inductive empirical analysis discusses seven variables of military behavior that combine two theoretical perspectives from existing strands of research: military-centric and society-centered explanations. We identify three forms of military behavior as empirically relevant in Asia. Each is characterized by the presence of a distinct combination of four causal factors: incumbent threats to the military’s core interests and a strong praetorian tradition (military-centered variables); and military veto power and a strong ruling party organization (society-centric factors). Other variables, such as a military background of political leaders, elite radicalization and polarized mass mobilization, and internal security and public order as established role of the military cannot account for varieties of military action in episodes of autocratization.