The northern territories of Western Siberia: Demographic trends and growth paradoxes

This paper analyzes socio-demographic trends over the past sixty years in the northern territories of Western Siberia, specifically the Khanty-Mansiysk and Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrugs. The study spans from the initial development of mineral resources in the 1950s–1960s to the present day. These regions are distinctive not only for their climatic and ethnocultural characteristics but also for their unique socio-economic models of regional development.The active phase of resource exploitation led to substantial population growth and rapid urbanization in the Khanty-Mansiysk and Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrugs, resulting in the establishment of over 20 new cities. However, since the 2000s, a gradual decline in oil and gas production has reversed these trends, causing a persistent outflow of population and reduced economic activity in many municipalities. The study identifies both commonalities and divergences in socio-demographic trends across the two regions. For instance, the Khanty-Mansiysk Autonomous Okrug, unlike the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug, has experienced a gradual population increase, primarily driven by natural population growth and positive net migration. Meanwhile, both regions exhibit similar changes in the age and gender structure of their populations and a shift in settlement patterns between urban and rural areas. The findings highlight the need for further comprehensive analysis of socio-demographic trends, with particular attention to permanent residents, indigenous small-numbered peoples of the North, and populations engaged in shift work. Additionally, the study underscores the importance of considering socio-cultural and climatic conditions in evaluating health indicators, as well as mortality and fertility rates.