Risk Contextualization for Nuclear Systems

Risk management strives to reach the standards of theoretical systematicity and empirical precision achieved in natural science models. To this end, a set of risk-informed and performance-based standards was developed in the form of statistically validated measures. The set enables the systematic extraction by deterministic and probabilistic analysis of potentially objective risk assessments and well-defined decisions. However, much of the data and models are subjectively influenced by the uncertainty of the context in which they are related and derived. Current risk analysis contains a large amount of risk-related information, but without the context of the models, its results lack sufficient predictive and explanatory power to be a solid basis for decisions. Therefore, to model the entire site of a multi-unit nuclear power plant as an integrated system connecting facility and activity, it is necessary to consider not only the technological conditions, but also the entire site context, including human, organizational, and environmental factors. An interface tool for dynamic deterministic-probabilistic safety analysis should be used to contextualize and complement existing risk indicators, but not to replace them. This article presents the possibilities of risk contextualization for nuclear systems through the symptom-based context quantification procedure of the Performance Evaluation Teamwork method.