Time-Varying Effects of China’s Agricultural OFDI on the Sustainability of Bilateral Agricultural Trade Within RCEP Countries: Multiple Analyses Based on the Model of Trade Gravity and TVP-VAR

China’s agricultural OFDI has achieved a new promotion of regional opening to the RCEP agricultural field, and the bilateral agricultural trade cooperation has great potential. China’s agricultural OFDI has been steadily increasing in recent years. As significant trade partners for Chinese agricultural products, RCEP countries represent an important region for China’s agricultural OFDI initiatives. However, existing studies have paid little attention to the trade effect and dynamic impact of China’s agricultural OFDI on agricultural products of RCEP countries. Therefore, based on the panel data of agricultural trade between China and RCEP countries from 2004 to 2019, this paper uses the trade gravity model and TVP-VAR model to investigate the time-varying effects of China’s agricultural OFDI on agricultural trade of RCEP countries. The findings are as follows: (1) The impact of China’s agricultural OFDI on bilateral agricultural trade between China and RCEP countries has significant time-varying characteristics, and there are short-, medium-, and long-term positive impacts most of the time. (2) When the bilateral agricultural trade reaches a certain level, the role of China’s agricultural OFDI is limited, but the overall positive and significant impact remains, showing a strong trade effect. (3) The positive impact on China’s agricultural OFDI has a heterogeneous impact on RCEP countries with different income levels and geographical connections, but the overall positive externality effect is significant. The research conclusions expand the research perspective on the trade effect of agricultural OFDI to a certain extent and provide management and policy implications for agricultural enterprises to “move fast” and promote the sustainability of bilateral agricultural trade between China and RCEP countries through government efforts.