The Impact and Mechanism of New-Type Urbanization on High-Quality Forestry Development: A Case Study of the Yellow River Basin in China

The Paris Agreement emphasizes the critical role of forests in addressing climate change and ecological protection. High-quality forestry development is an important aspect of forest conservation. As a core strategy for China’s economic transformation, new-type urbanization is increasingly interacting with high-quality forestry development. This study aims to explore this relationship and analyze its impact mechanism. Taking the representative Yellow River Basin in China as an example, this research uses a benchmark regression model, mediation effect model, and threshold effect model from 2010 to 2022 to quantitatively analyze the impact of new-type urbanization on high-quality forestry development. The results show that (1) new-type urbanization has significantly promoted high-quality forestry development, with an estimated coefficient of 0.325; (2) forestry in different regions exhibits significant differences, with the forestry return coefficients for the upper, middle, and lower reaches being 0.326, 0.213, and −0.359, respectively; (3) technological innovation plays a key role in improving forestry production efficiency, resource diversity, and ecosystem services, with an estimated coefficient of 6.543 for technological innovation; (4) the greater the government support, the larger the impact. The p-value of the double threshold is 0.037. Accordingly, to achieve high-quality forestry development, joint efforts are required at both the national and regional levels in promoting new-type urbanization. At the national level, specific ecological areas should be taken as units, and a collaborative development plan for new-type urbanization and high-quality forestry development should be formulated based on the land spatial planning system. This plan should clarify top policy objectives, set up special funds, establish long-term incentives and supervision mechanisms, and ensure that new urbanization has a positive impact on forestry development. At the regional level, appropriate technological innovations should be introduced based on local characteristics, and differentiated new-type urbanization development policies should be formulated to promote high-quality forestry development in the region.