Оценка вариации влияния инфраструктурных и производственных инвестиций на региональный экономический рост

The article evaluates the varying impact of infrastructure and manufacturing investments on regional economic growth. A competent and well-thought-out investment allocation policy is crucial for successful country development, making this paper relevant. The literature presents differing opinions on the impact of investment on economic growth, particularly regarding the prioritisation of financing production or infrastructure projects. The study attempts to address the issue of reverse causality and omitted variables in the framework of combating false positive and false negative relationships. This is achieved through modelling based on spatial autoregressive data analysis and the use of the instrumental variables’ method. The ultimate goal is to obtain more accurate estimates of the impact of the considered indicators on regional economic growth. The results indicate that a 1 percentage point increase in infrastructure investment leads to a 0.52 percentage point increase in economic growth, which is comparable to the 0.53 percentage point impact of production investment. It is concluded that achieving a balance between investments in production and infrastructure is necessary to ensure the conditions for long-term sustainable development of Russian regions.