Уровень убийств в регионах Российской Федерации: локальная проблема или  «заразное явление»

The article addresses the problem of modeling the number of murders per 1000 population in the regions of the Russian Federation taking into account the spatial dependence between the regions. The authors conduct a comprehensive analysis of various socio-economic factors affecting the level of murders using modern methods of spatial econometrics. The main result of the study is the identification of a significant spatial spillover between the regions, which can be explained by the direct influence of the dynamics of crime indicators in neighboring regions on the considered region. The authors also identify factors that have a positive or negative impact on the number of murders, such as unemployment, poverty, education, air pollution, etc. Based on the obtained results, the authors offer practical recommendations for developing effective strategies to combat violent crime in the regions of Russia. The article is of interest to specialists in the fields of econometrics, criminology, sociology and public safety management.