A Cost-Oriented Score Evaluation Index to Align Probabilistic Forecasting and Uncertain Decision-Making in Power Systems
Existing research has shown the inconsistency between point forecasting and deterministic optimization, yet the consistency between probabilistic forecast indices and uncertain optimization has not been investigated. This letter fills this gap by undertaking scenario-based tests to reveal the mismatch and proposing a new cost-oriented score (COS) to indicate whether a probabilistic forecast can lead to a “better” decision-making performance in unit commitment and economic dispatch.
Authors
- Can Wan (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0263-9812)
- Haipeng Zhang (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5187-7182)
- Nengling Tai (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3119-0137)
- Ran Li (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1286-6229)
- Yongchao Sun
- Xinyue Yan (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0009-0003-0619-2015)
Institutions
- State Grid Corporation of China (China) (CN)
- Shanghai Jiao Tong University (CN)
- Zhejiang University (CN)
Publication Details
- Journal
- IEEE Transactions on Power Systems
- Published
- 2024-12-25
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.1109/tpwrs.2024.3522708
- Citations
- 3
- Primary Topic
- Energy Load and Power Forecasting
- Type
- article
- Field-Weighted Citation Impact
- 0.63
Funders
- National Natural Science Foundation of China