Plans and reality in the horizon of the future: towards the issue of conceptualization in the analysis of social behavior

In the practice of sociological research, the growth of interest in various aspects of social behavior is the higher the more acute the crisis period and uncertainty of reality. Today, adherence to life guidelines, resistance to various challenges, flexibility in the strategies of social behavior acquire the status of a key competitive advantage in ensuring stability, security and development of Russian society. The relevance of the topic is due to the demand for the development of new approaches to the analysis of social behavior, which will allow to take into account not only the objective conditions of people’s lives, but also their subjective ideas about the desired future. The article substantiates the conceptualization of the concepts of plans and reality in the horizon of near and far planning of life goals within the boundaries of the methodology of studying social behavior. The author’s model of analysis of social behavior strategy choice allows taking into account not only rational but also axiological aspects of social behavior, as well as its relationship with life strategies, motivation, and beliefs. The empirical base is the data obtained in the course of nationwide studies conducted by the Institute of Sociology of the Federal Research Center of the Russian Academy of Sciences in the period 2015–2024. The conceptual model is tested through the comparison of perceptions of the spheres of desired and actually achieved success in the realization of life goals through the characteristics of the length of the planning horizon and the perception of their future. The analysis of dynamics showed that family, work, personal well-being constitute the core of perceptions of success and, as a consequence, the motivation of achievement and the formation of the image of the future. Negative trends were revealed: a structural shift in the assessment of the importance of education, a high gap between plans and real prospects for professional realization. The height of social barriers in the spheres of labor market and material well-being remains significant for a significant part of respondents. In terms of personal future planning horizon, stable trends were found: in assessing their current situation among those who have plans for the future there are twice as many who assess it as good; the share of those who have achieved or achieved a lot is also higher among those who have plans than among those who do not make plans at all. An additional angle of analysis through the criterion of planning horizon length serves as a meaningful measure of proactivity of social behavior, manifestation of values and perceptions in specific actions. The results of the study can be useful for sociologists studying social behavior, as well as for specialists working in the field of social psychology, social management and forecasting; they can contribute to the development of new methods for analyzing social behavior, taking into account its subjective component.