Evidence of Monetary Policy and Economic Growth Nexus from Pakistan

Purpose: To analyze the relationship between monetary policy and economic growth in Pakistan, study had used time-series data from 1975 to 2023. Design/Methodology/Approach: Employing an empirical approach, the study applies the Error Correction Model (ECM) and the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) framework to investigate variable interactions. To capture volatility within growth-rate of GDP-per-capita (GDPPC), study further applies the “Auto Regressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH) and Generalized Auto Regressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models”. Findings: These results implied that inflation, money supply, and overall reserve-ratio exert a negative and significant impact on financial development, whereas monetary policy instruments, specifically interest rates and exchange rates, demonstrated a positive and significant effect on economic performance. Results from ARCH and GARCH analysis revealed a persistent long-run volatility effects in Pakistan’s GDPPC growth rate. Implications/Originality/Value: So, it is concluded that money supply policies can be revised and instead of increasing money supply solely, the focus can be shifted towards increasing interest-rate and exchange-rate which, in most cases, yield positive results while money supply, especially in this study, has negative sign pointing towards negative economic growth unsupportive for sustainable growth and development.