Mild Inflation Naturally Prevents Divergence of Debt to GDP Ratio

This paper shows mainly the following results. 1) The debt to GDP ratio cannot diverge to infinity, that is, fiscal collapse is impossible. The necessary condition for this result is that the propensity to consume from the asset is positive. 2) The divergence of the debt to GDP ratio is prevented by inflation when the interest rate on government bonds is considerably higher than the real growth rate, and the inflation rate which is sufficient to prevent divergence of the debt to GDP ratio is smaller than the interest rate on government bonds. Only an inflation rate slightly greater than the difference between the interest rate on government bonds and the sum of the real growth rate and the propensity to consume from the asset is required. This inflation is not caused by policy but occurs naturally.

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Publication Details

Journal
Economic Analysis Letters
Published
2024-12-15
DOI
https://doi.org/10.58567/eal03040002
Primary Topic
Financial Literacy, Pension, Retirement Analysis
Type
article
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0.00
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article

Mild Inflation Naturally Prevents Divergence of Debt to GDP Ratio

Yasuhito Tanaka
Economic Analysis Letters
Financial Literacy, Pension, Retirement Analysis
article

Mild Inflation Naturally Prevents Divergence of Debt to GDP Ratio

Yasuhito Tanaka
article en

Abstract

This paper shows mainly the following results. 1) The debt to GDP ratio cannot diverge to infinity, that is, fiscal collapse is impossible. The necessary condition for this result is that the propensity to consume from the asset is positive. 2) The divergence of the debt to GDP ratio is prevented by inflation when the interest rate on government bonds is considerably higher than the real growth rate, and the inflation rate which is sufficient to prevent divergence of the debt to GDP ratio is smaller than the interest rate on government bonds. Only an inflation rate slightly greater than the difference between the interest rate on government bonds and the sum of the real growth rate and the propensity to consume from the asset is required. This inflation is not caused by policy but occurs naturally.

Economic Analysis LettersVol. 3(4)
Doshisha University (JP)
Decent work and economic growth
Openalex Percentile: Top 60%
Financial Literacy, Pension, Retirement Analysis
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