Assessing the Growth Performance of Millet in Uttar Pradesh: A Decomposition Analysis

Background: Uttar Pradesh is emerging as a driver of the nation’s economy with its infrastructure and as an exporter of indigenous products. In the last few decades, it has become India’s largest producer of food grains and has made a significant contribution to exports. Methods: The log-linear exponential method has been used to estimate production, area and yield growth. Production was decomposed to area, yield and interaction effects; for Stability analysis, the coefficient of variation (CV) and Cuddy Dell and Coppock’s instability index were employed and analysis was carried out for three specific millet crops- sorghum, pearl millet and small millets. Result: In Uttar Pradesh, a region of significant millet production, there was a notable increase in the area, production and millet productivity over the entire period. Pearl millet, the most critical millet crop, accounted for a substantial portion of the area (46.93%) and (43.76%) of the total millet area and production in India, respectively. Growth indicated that the production and productivity of pearl millet have increased despite a decrease in the area under cultivation. The coefficient of variation (CV) and instability index suggested by Cuddy and Dell revealed that the production and productivity of pearl millet and sorghum millet showed a low degree of variation over the years. The decomposition of millet production indicates that it declined over the year. Regarding the interaction effect, the highest (2128%) was in the overall period of sorghum millet and the lowest. The highest interaction effect was observed overall compared to periods I and II.