Wages and return to capital in Thailand in a free trade agreement with the EU

Thailand and the EU started negotiating a free trade agreement (FTA) in 2005, but negotiations were subsequently suspended in 2014 after the country’s military coup. The significance of these negotiations are important because of the mutual benefit of achieving higher levels of trade and investment between the world’s largest single market and the second largest ASEAN economy. The Specific Factors (SF) model of production and trade is applied to identify potential winner and loser industries and factors of production in Thailand. The model identifies short-run loses for some labor inputs, return to capital, and output in agriculture and services. In the manufacturing and energy sectors, higher output will benefit some labor inputs and capital owners. Understanding the short-run impact of an FTA could allow policymakers in Thailand to reinforce the institutional infrastructure such as implementing trade adjustment assistance programs (TAA), to help re-train workers who may become unemployed due to free trade.