Spatiotemporal evolution and driving factors of carbon emission intensity from urban land use in China

The analysis of spatial differentiation and driving factors of urban land use carbon intensity in China can provide scientific theoretical basis and empirical support for urban control of land use carbon intensity. Based on the calculation of land use carbon intensity of 284 cities at or above the prefecture level in China from 2006 to 2021, this paper uses exploratory spatio-temporal data analysis to investigate the spatio-temporal evolution of urban carbon intensity in China, and introduces a multi-scale geographical weighted regression model to explore the spatial heterogeneity of its driving factors. The results showed that: (1) the carbon emission intensity of cities in China and the three regions showed a decreasing trend over time, and the spatial and temporal distribution of cities had a strong spatial positive correlation. (2) In terms of local spatial structure and dependence of carbon emission intensity, the volatility of cities in central and western regions is higher, while cities in eastern regions are relatively more stable; In the spatial pattern, there are some characteristics of transfer inertia and locking. (3) The main driving factors of carbon reduction effect at different spatial and temporal scales are different, and there is a certain spatial heterogeneity. This study comprehensively discussed the temporal and spatial transition, convergence trend and driving factors of urban land carbon emission intensity in China, attempting to provide a reference for differentiated emission reduction strategies for cities, which is of great significance for the transformation of cities from "dual control of energy consumption" to "dual control of carbon emission" and the green transformation of economic and social structure.