On affine multicolor urns grown under multiple drawing

Abstract Early investigation of Pólya urns considered drawing balls one at a time. In the last two decades, several authors have considered multiple drawing in each step, but mostly for schemes involving two colors. In this manuscript, we consider multiple drawing from urns of balls of multiple colors, formulating asymptotic theory for specific urn classes and addressing more applications. The class we consider is affine and tenable, built around a ‘core’ square matrix. We examine cases where the urn is irreducible and demonstrate its relationship to matrix irreducibility for its core matrix, with examples provided. An index for the drawing schema is derived from the eigenvalues of the core. We identify three regimes: small, critical, and large index. In the small-index regime, we find an asymptotic Gaussian law. In the critical-index regime, we also find an asymptotic Gaussian law, albeit with a difference in the scale factor, which involves logarithmic terms. In both of these regimes, we have explicit forms for the structure of the mean and the covariance matrix of the composition vector (both exact and asymptotic). In all three regimes we have strong laws.

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Publication Details

Journal
Journal of Applied Probability
Published
2024-12-24
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1017/jpr.2024.101
Primary Topic
Mathematical Dynamics and Fractals
Type
article
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article

On affine multicolor urns grown under multiple drawing

Markus Kuba, Hosam M. Mahmoud, Srinivasan Balaji, Joshua Sparks
Journal of Applied Probability
Mathematical Dynamics and Fractals
article

On affine multicolor urns grown under multiple drawing

Markus Kuba, Hosam M. Mahmoud, Srinivasan Balaji, Joshua Sparks
article en

Abstract

Abstract Early investigation of Pólya urns considered drawing balls one at a time. In the last two decades, several authors have considered multiple drawing in each step, but mostly for schemes involving two colors. In this manuscript, we consider multiple drawing from urns of balls of multiple colors, formulating asymptotic theory for specific urn classes and addressing more applications. The class we consider is affine and tenable, built around a ‘core’ square matrix. We examine cases where the urn is irreducible and demonstrate its relationship to matrix irreducibility for its core matrix, with examples provided. An index for the drawing schema is derived from the eigenvalues of the core. We identify three regimes: small, critical, and large index. In the small-index regime, we find an asymptotic Gaussian law. In the critical-index regime, we also find an asymptotic Gaussian law, albeit with a difference in the scale factor, which involves logarithmic terms. In both of these regimes, we have explicit forms for the structure of the mean and the covariance matrix of the composition vector (both exact and asymptotic). In all three regimes we have strong laws.

Journal of Applied ProbabilityVol. 62(2)
University of Applied Sciences Technikum Wien (AT), George Washington University (US)
Peace, Justice and strong institutions
Openalex Percentile: Top 60%
Mathematical Dynamics and Fractals
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