When Democratic Transition Leads to Anarchy: Lessons from Ethiopia

Abstract Ethiopia has tried to transit to democracy, in 1991 and 2018. In both attempts, it was not that successful. This paper tries to explain why democratic transition in Ethiopia has not been successful and what lessons can be drawn from these experiences. Democratic transition and consolidation require certain social, economic, cultural and external preconditions. An attempt at democratic transition may not succeed if these preconditions do not exist in the society that attempts it. Ethiopia does not have any of these preconditions. Contrarily, its ethnic diversity, poverty, absence of strong political institutions, polarisation, and culture of solving political differences with conflict and violence make democratic transition and consolidation almost impossible. The Ethiopian experience provides that for states like Ethiopia, democratic transition is hard and sustaining it is even harder. For states like Ethiopia, the best way to transit to democracy is to first develop the democratic preconditions, such as political compromise and fidelity to peaceful resolution of political conflict, before an attempt at democratic transition can be made.