The Impact of Climate Change on Energy Consumption on Small Tropical Islands

The anthropic causes of climate change are well known, but the influence of climate change on society needs to be better estimated. This study estimates the impact of climate change on energy consumption on small tropical islands using monthly temperatures and energy production/consumption statistics during the last decades. Here, we show, using energy, meteorological, demographic, and economic datasets, as well as statistical correlations, that energy consumption is sensitive to (i) cyclonic activity and (ii) temperature warming. On small tropical islands, increased electricity consumption correlates with temperatures rising above 26 °C in relation to air conditioner electricity consumption. On La Réunion Island, a +1 °C increase is expected to cause an electricity production of 1.5 MWh/inhabitant per year, representing a growth of 3.2%. Considering that non-renewable sources are primarily used to produce electricity, this feedback contributed significantly (i.e., 2000 to 4000 TWh) to the greenhouse gas increase caused by climate warming over the last decades on tropical islands. Demographic and wealth variations, as well as socio-economic crises, also have a significant impact on energy consumption (2 kWh for 1000 inhabitants, 0.008 GWh/inhabitant growth for a 10,000 GDP/inhabitant growth, and a 0.2 GWh/inhabitant decrease during COVID-19, for annual consumption, respectively) and must be taken into account for decadal variation analysis. The relationship between climate change and energy consumption in tropical areas should be better integrated into climatic scenarios to adapt building isolation and energy production.