Assessment of Russian economic growth potential in 2024-2030

The Russian economy faced serious problems: a shortage of labour; economic sanctions, and high depreciation of fixed capital. The economic policy of the Russian authorities is inconsistent. It includes the desire to increase investments in fixed capital is accompanied by their artificial restraint through monetary and financial policies. Indeed, the scientific literature makes various proposals for economic policy changes. However, we believe the insufficient attention is paid to the objective possibilities of accelerating the renewal of fixed capital. The purpose of the study is to determine the growth opportunities of the Russian economy in 2024-2030 on the basis of accelerating fixed capital renovation. We used methods of mathematical statistics and simulation modelling. Information research base: official statistics. We constructed two objectively possible trajectories of the Russian economy development for 2023-2030 have been constructed in terms of accelerating fixed capital renovation. According to the research, the trajectory with a higher rate of capital renewal provides a significant acceleration of economic development and significantly reduces the country’s dependence on equipment imports and exports of raw materials, even with a reduction in the total number of employees. To realize the potential of economic growth, changes in property relations, effective management system are necessary; their essence is in the formation of national economic planning through indicative planning, foreign trade, currency regulation, and nationalisation of management.