BIPE: A Bi-Layer Predictive Ensemble Framework for Forest Fire Susceptibility Mapping in Germany

Forest fires diminish forests’ ecological services, including carbon sequestration, water retention, air cooling, and recreation, while polluting the environment and endangering habitats. Despite considerable economic advancements, firefighting strategies remain less than optimal. This paper introduces the Bi-layer Predictive Ensemble (BIPE), an innovative machine learning model designed to enhance the accuracy and generalization of forest fire susceptibility mapping. BIPE integrates model-centric and data-driven strategies, employing automated methods such as 10-fold cross-validation and meta-learning to improve stability and generalization. During its 10-fold cross-validation, BIPE demonstrated excellent performance, with the Area Under the Curve (AUC) values ranging from 0.990 to 0.996 and accuracy levels consistently high, around 97%, underscoring its robust class separation ability and strong generalization across different datasets. Our results confirm that BIPE outperforms traditional high-performance models like Support Vector Machine (SVM), Multilayer Perceptron (MLP), Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), Deep Neural Network (DNN), and Convolutional Neural Network (CNN), showcasing its practical effectiveness and reliability on the data of nonlinear, high-dimensional, and complex interactions. Additionally, our forest fire susceptibility maps offer valuable complementary information for German forest fire management authorities, enhancing their ability to assess and manage fire risks more effectively.