Digital twin-based modeling of natural gas leakage and dispersion in urban utility tunnels

<ns3:p>Background Unexpected leakage accidents of the natural gas pipeline inside urban utility tunnels can pose great threats to public safety, property, and the environment. It highlights the modeling of natural gas leakage and dispersion dynamics, especially from a digital twin implementation perspective facilitating effective emergency response in a data-driven way. Methods In this study, a digital twin-based emergency response framework for gas leakage accidents in urban utility tunnels is proposed. Within this framework, the data-calibrated gas concentration prediction (DC-GCP) model is developed by integrating the Lattice Boltzmann Method (LBM) with data assimilation (DA) techniques. This combination enables accurate spatiotemporal predictions of gas concentrations, even with a prior or inaccurate gas leakage source term. Specifically, we develop a high-performance LBM-based gas concentration prediction model using the parallel programming language Taichi Lang. Based on this model, real-time integration of gas sensor data from utility tunnels is achieved through the DA algorithm. Therefore, the predicted results can be calibrated by the continuous data in the absence of complete source term information. Furthermore, a widely used twin experiment and statistical performance measures (SPMs) are used to evaluate and validate the effectiveness of the proposed approach. Results The results show that all SPMs progressively converge towards their ideal values as calibration progresses. And both the gas concentration predictions and the source term estimations can be calibrated effectively by the proposed approach, achieving a relative error of less than 5%. Conclusions This study helps for dynamic risk assessment and emergency response of natural gas leakage accidents, as well as facilitating the implementation of predictive digital twin in utility tunnels.</ns3:p>