Cognate reflex prediction as hypothesis test for a genealogical relation between the Panoan and Takanan language families

We present a novel approach for testing genealogical relations between language families. Our method, which has previously only been applied to closely related languages, makes predictions for cognate reflexes based on the regularity of proposed sound correspondences between language families that are hypothesized to be related. We test the hypothesis about a genealogical relation between Panoan and Takanan, two linguistic families of the Amazon. The workflow contributes to new ideas of hypothesis testing in historical linguistics and can likely be transferred to other language families. We predict 206 cognate reflexes from Shipibo-Konibo, a Panoan language, from independently proposed Proto-Takanan reconstructions and test our predictions in elicitation sessions with speakers of the language. We found 21 correct predictions from the core-set, as well as another 20 correct predictions from the extended set of predictions. In addition to confirming the previously established sound correspondence patterns, we find further evidence for additional patterns that suggest the reconstruction of three new phonemes for Proto-Pano-Takanan. PROTOCOL REGISTRATION: The stage 1 protocol for this Registered Report was accepted in principle on 06/05/24. The protocol, as accepted by the journal, can be found at: https://doi.org/10.17605/OSF.IO/FGBM7 .