Why Did the Inflection Point of Bus Ridership Occur in China in 2014? Origins from the Effect of the Ride-Hailing Service

Although rapid construction of public transit infrastructure has continued in China in recent years, there has been a significant decline in bus ridership since 2014. To investigate this trend, we conducted a statistical analysis for 24 cities in China, using fixed-effects panel regression to examine the relationships between bus ridership and significant factors from 2000 to 2019. Our analysis revealed that the emergence of ride-hailing services was probably the most significant contributor to the decline in bus ridership, reducing it by 33% from 2014 to 2019. This finding suggests that ride-hailing services have caused an inflection point in bus ridership. Furthermore, we found that gross domestic product (GDP) negatively moderates the effect of ride-hailing services on bus ridership, with cities of lower economic status experiencing a more significant decline in ridership, owing to the development of ride-hailing services. Our research provides valuable insights for policymakers and relevant departments when addressing transit ridership loss and transit system development issues.