A defossilised EU petrochemical production system: Consequences for the meta-cluster in the Antwerp-Rotterdam-Rhine-Ruhr Area

• A modelling approach and scenario is presented that simultaneously optimises investment and plant utilisation in European petrochemical production networks moving towards defossilisation. • The future role of horizontal and vertical integration in electrified and defossilised polymer production systems is analysed. • The role and challenges of individual regional production clusters in a wider production system are presented, in particular for the Antwerp-Rotterdam-Rhine-Ruhr area, a "meta-cluster" in Northwestern Europe. Today's petrochemical industry relies on fossil hydrocarbons, not only for energy purposes but also as feedstock. This use of fossil materials is being challenged by the European Union's target to achieve climate neutrality by 2050. The most affected region in Europe is the cross-border region between Antwerp, Rotterdam and the Rhine-Ruhr area in western Germany, an interconnected petrochemical meta-cluster. Although several defossilisation scenarios for petrochemicals have been developed both at the EU level and for single countries, the effect that an EU-wide transition from fossil to non-fossil feedstock would have on technology routes, feedstock alternatives and final product shares, as well as the resulting locational and geographical consequences are not yet understood. To fill this gap, the paper presents a scenario where the European petrochemical industry transitions away from fossil by 2050 and analyses how the energy supply and the defossilisation of carbon supply will change this industry. With this scenario as a backdrop, a zoom-in shows how the Antwerp-Rotterdam-Rhine-Ruhr Area might evolve technically and spatially. To this end, a techno-economic bottom-up model is employed that derives cost-optimal pathways towards defossilised petrochemical production networks. The analysis shows that a scenario for petrochemicals that achieves full non-fossil feedstock use in the EU by 2050 is very likely to be associated with a significant change not only in the feedstock base but also in the production technologies. The meta-cluster will face major challenges as its current strength in specialty polymers might suffer from cost increases for aromatics and the high energy intensity of the respective polymerisation steps. This requires specific strategies in regard to feedstock and energy supply as well as infrastructure.